2026 ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition

Development of a Counterfactual Model of Career-Long Financial Outcomes in Master’s Engineering Education

Presented at Persistence, Completion, and their Factors

This full empirical research paper will explore the financial costs of pursuing graduate education in engineering. Engineering graduate degrees are commonly perceived as financially advantageous investments, particularly since most are funded through assistantships that minimize immediate student debt. While recent research has explored various costs (both tangible and emotional) associated with graduate education, a comprehensive financial analysis of different graduate pathways compared to industry employment after a bachelor's degree remains lacking. Because graduate education reshapes both the timing and structure of early career earnings and debt, its long-term financial consequences require explicit and systematic analysis. This paper focuses on the development of a modeling method for conducting counterfactual financial analyses of engineering education pathways that explicitly accounts for time, uncertainty, and the dynamic interaction between earnings, debt, savings, and investment growth. We present a net-worth–based framework that tracks individuals’ financial trajectories over the life course, incorporating delayed workforce entry, student loan amortization, emergency fund accumulation, and the compounding effects of early-career foregone earnings. Rather than producing definitive estimates of return on investment, this work offers a transparent and extensible tool for evaluating how alternative educational pathways generate divergent wealth outcomes under comparable economic assumptions. We demonstrate the functionality of the model using two illustrative cases that contrast immediate entry into industry after a bachelor’s degree with delayed entry following a master’s degree. These examples show how small differences in timing, debt burden, and salary progression can produce substantial differences in lifetime financial position.

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