How well do students follow faculty-defined flowcharts? Is student progress in lock step with flowcharts? How much does progress vary by major, or for part time students? How does advanced placement credit impact progress on a flowchart? Our study of student progress has yielded some surprising results to these questions and progress is far from lock step.
We used university archival data to compare actual progress to the ideal version depicted on a curriculum flowchart, using historical data. Delays in actual enrollment relative to the ideal are referred to as flowchart slippage. A regression analysis was used to model slippage, with the goal of identifying dependent variables that are correlated to changes in slippage along prerequisite chains. This study builds on concepts from prior work in curriculum complexity metrics. We extend the prior work by including comparisons with actual student data, and we use the regression to help identify the existence of trends. Analysis of the historical data has also revealed the benefit of specific structures of curricular requirements that mitigate and even reduce slippage.
A tenet of this work is that students are not to blame for flowchart slippage. Rather, the root causes are systemic in nature and slippage is merely a symptom. Examples of these systemic issues include work commitments, family care, and part-time enrollment. Additional issues include institutional constraints, such as courses not being offered every term, courses conflicted with each other, or there being insufficient seats for a particular course in a particular term. All these factors are in addition to curricular complexity.
We pose the following research questions:
RQ1 Are slippage patterns discernible in sequences of courses?
RQ2 Is slippage correlated to curriculum complexity metrics and academic data?
RQ3 Under what conditions does slippage tend to lessen?
RQ4 How much does slippage vary for different majors or populations (part-time, transfer)?
The full paper will include a description of the archival data and regression analysis. Results indicated correlation values as high as 0.67 between slippage and our dependent variables. Results also demonstrated instances where flowchart slippage was reduced! Our comparison of actual student progress versus the flowchart provided a means to confirm assumptions made by others in prior work.
This paper assesses curricula using a new method referred to as slippage analysis. Results over multiple cohorts and comparisons with related majors are included.
The full paper will be available to logged in and registered conference attendees once the conference starts on June 21, 2026, and to all visitors after the conference ends on June 24, 2026