2026 ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition

Towards Early Identification of Engineering Students at Risk for Academic Danger

Presented at FPD: Complete Papers - Student Major and Career Discernment

This research paper describes the development and validation of an early-identification system for detecting students at risk for academic action (probation or suspension) after their first semester. The College of Engineering at Ohio Northern University has grown significantly over the past 5 years, which has placed strain on limited academic support resources for these students. To maximize the use of these limited academic support resources, it is important to connect these resources to students who need them most. There is significant literature aimed at identifying at-risk students before they arrive on campus, but high school GPAs, curriculum and testing scores have not shown to be reliable predictors of academic success in the transition to college. These methods are also complicated by ACT / SAT test-optional policies.

The aim of this study is to conduct an analysis that accurately identifies students most at risk for academic actions after they arrive on campus, but before they reach the end of the first semester. This early identification strategy will allow for timely application of academic support interventions.

In order to conduct this analysis, 4 inputs have been collected from historical data over 3 successive fall semesters (2021-2023). These inputs include:
1. Midterm grades for the first semester introductory engineering course
2. Professionalism scores in that engineering course 5 weeks into the semester
3. Midterm grades for first semester mathematics courses
4. Which math course each student was enrolled in during that semester
In addition, the term GPAs, which link to academic actions of probation or suspension, were collected. These data are used to assess the following research question:
RQ: To what extent do the proposed factors validly predict which students will be at risk for academic action?

This work will discuss the principal results from this early identification study and will describe intervention strategies for students identified as at-risk through application of this analysis. Important metrics for determining the accuracy of this analysis include:
1. What percentage of students are correctly identified as at risk for academic action?
2. How many false positives or false negatives are identified?

Authors

Dr. Benjamin D McPheron http://orcid.org/0009-0007-7649-8174 Ohio Northern University [biography]

Benjamin D. McPheron serves as the Assistant Dean for Academic and Student Affairs in the T.J. Smull College of Engineering at Ohio Northern University. He also holds rank of Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering. Dr. McPheron received his B.S.E.E. in Electrical Engineering at Ohio Northern University in 2010 and his Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering in 2014 from The Pennsylvania State University, University Park.
Dr. Todd France Ohio Northern University [biography]

Todd France is the director of Ohio Northern University's Engineering Education program, which strives to prepare engineering educators for grades 7-12. Dr. France also helps coordinate the first-year engineering experience and leads courses on sustainability and community service at ONU.
Dr. J. Blake Hylton http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9766-971X Ohio Northern University [biography]

Dr. Hylton is an Associate Professor and Chair of Mechanical Engineering in the T.J. Smull College of Engineering at Ohio Northern University, where he also holds the Leroy H. Lytle Endowed Chair. He completed his graduate studies in Mechanical Engineering at Purdue University. Dr. Hylton has also served as the Division Chair for ASEE's FYP Division, as Chair of the Steering Committee for FYEE, and is one of the founders of the First-Year Leaders Summit. He is also an initiating member of the EMIFY Project.

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