2025 ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition

BOARD # 14: Aircraft Misfuelling: A Case Study Using Bayesian Probability Risk Assessment

Presented at Aerospace Division (AERO) Poster Session

Misfuelling, or delivering the wrong type of fuel to an aircraft, can lead to severe economic losses and catastrophic safety risks if not detected before either fueling or aircraft departure. Misfuelling may occur in the General Aviation (GA) sector where smaller aircraft may use either jet fuel or Aviation Gasoline (Avgas) that cannot be easily identified by the overall appearance of the aircraft. This study investigates the potential prevention of misfuelling through adequate education and placarding after the integration of SAF, by following a risk assessment technique that uses Bayesian inference. Past accidents/incidents will be quantified using the Federal Aviation Administration’s safety risk matrix, based on the severity and likelihood of the events. Bayesian inference will be used to update the probability of future misfuelling incidents based on prior events, incorporating new information as SAF becomes more widely adopted. This type of example may also inspire students in aerospace and aviation programs to learn more about aviation carbon emissions, alternative fuels, and the use of non-parametric statistics and Bayesian techniques.

Authors

Jiahao Yu Purdue University [biography]

Jiahao "Hal" Yu is a Ph.D. student at Purdue University WL in Aviation Technology and Management with research interests spanning various aviation-related projects. He is concurrently pursuing Graduate Certificates in Aviation Financial Management and Applied Statistics while completing his Ph.D.
Prof. Mary E. Johnson Ph.D. http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6572-0979 Purdue University at West Lafayette (PPI) [biography]

Mary E. Johnson is a Professor and Associate Head for Graduate Studies and Research in the School of Aviation and Transportation Technology (SATT) in the Purdue Polytechnic Institute at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana. She earned her BS, MS and PhD in Industrial Engineering from the University of Texas at Arlington
Dr. John H. Mott http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2087-3971 Purdue University at West Lafayette (PPI) [biography]

John H. Mott is a Professor in the School of Aviation and Transportation Technology at Purdue University. Dr. Mott serves as the Director of the Advanced Aviation Analytics Center of Research Excellence (A3IR-CORE) at Purdue. He holds multiple FAA pilot and instructor certificates. His research is focused on the aggregation and analysis of distributed transportation data using stochastic modeling techniques and the development of related tools to facilitate improvements to system safety and efficiency.

Note

The full paper will be available to logged in and registered conference attendees once the conference starts on June 22, 2025, and to all visitors after the conference ends on June 25, 2025

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