2025 ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition

Misfuelling, or delivering the wrong type of fuel to an aircraft, can lead to severe economic losses and catastrophic safety risks if not detected before either fueling or aircraft departure. Misfuelling may occur in the General Aviation (GA) sector where smaller aircraft may use either jet fuel or Aviation Gasoline (Avgas) that cannot be easily identified by the overall appearance of the aircraft. This study investigates the potential prevention of misfuelling through adequate education and placarding after the integration of SAF, by following a risk assessment technique that uses Bayesian inference. Past accidents/incidents will be quantified using the Federal Aviation Administration’s safety risk matrix, based on the severity and likelihood of the events. Bayesian inference will be used to update the probability of future misfuelling incidents based on prior events, incorporating new information as SAF becomes more widely adopted. This type of example may also inspire students in aerospace and aviation programs to learn more about aviation carbon emissions, alternative fuels, and the use of non-parametric statistics and Bayesian techniques.